V-Lab
Alibaba Group Hldg Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
5,546.65
increased by 1,461.88
1 Week
4,384.76
increased by 299.99
1 Month
4,011.26
decreased by 73.51
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0859 | 5.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0873 | 5.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9055 | 52.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0539 | -0.21 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
Other Alibaba Group Hldg Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities