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Alibaba Group Hldg Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

5,546.65

increased by 1,461.88

1 Week

4,384.76

increased by 299.99

1 Month

4,011.26

decreased by 73.51

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Alibaba Group Hldg ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0859
5.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0873
5.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9055
52.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0539
-0.21

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days