V-Lab
Alibaba Group Hldg Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
4,786.51
1 Week
4,225.50
1 Month
3,736.80
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 219% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.88 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0395 | 6.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9173 | 252.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0865 | 5.37*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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