Jinli Group Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
3,251.14
decreased by 533.28
1 Week
4,205.09
increased by 420.67
1 Month
5,885.79
increased by 2,101.37
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 2012 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 364 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~364 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9878 | 3.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1628 | 14.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8353 | 73.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0012 | -0.11 |
0.998
Persistence364d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9878 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1628 | 14.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8353 | 73.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0012 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
364 days
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