Skip to main content
V-Lab

Orvis Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

10,022.67

increased by 7,594.40

1 Week

4,103.07

increased by 1,674.80

1 Month

4,996.75

increased by 2,568.48

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Orvis Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 5, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 156 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9522
3.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1818
12.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8138
52.96***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.3789
-8.17***
γ20.5183
7.09***
γ3-0.1610
-2.49**
γ40.0668
0.82

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

156 days