V-Lab
Orvis Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
10,022.67
increased by 7,594.40
1 Week
4,103.07
increased by 1,674.80
1 Month
4,996.75
increased by 2,568.48
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 156 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9522 | 3.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1818 | 12.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8138 | 52.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.3789 | -8.17*** |
| γ2 | 0.5183 | 7.09*** |
| γ3 | -0.1610 | -2.49** |
| γ4 | 0.0668 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
156 days
Other Orvis Corp Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities