V-Lab
Orvis Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
9,649.45
1 Week
4,143.04
1 Month
5,495.42
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1709 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8431 | 245.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1709 | -1.34 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2842 | 5.01*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9981 | 356.83*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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