V-Lab
Orvis Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
8,436.36
1 Week
3,739.55
1 Month
4,774.82
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.53** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 16.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8887 | 205.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0672 | 10.62*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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