V-Lab
Yamadai Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1,155.05
increased by 57.05
1 Week
1,112.59
increased by 14.59
1 Month
1,523.64
increased by 425.64
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:52 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5431 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1049 | 12.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8908 | 102.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2087 | -3.25*** |
| γ2 | 0.1663 | 1.77* |
| γ3 | 0.2191 | 2.47** |
| γ4 | -0.4007 | -3.97*** |
| γ5 | 0.4458 | 3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
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