Yamadai Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
1,253.41
decreased by 93.90
1 Week
1,400.38
increased by 53.07
1 Month
2,150.24
increased by 802.93
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 157 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5386 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 12.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8912 | 103.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2081 | -3.26*** |
| γ2 | 0.1651 | 1.76* |
| γ3 | 0.2208 | 2.48** |
| γ4 | -0.4038 | -3.99*** |
| γ5 | 0.4585 | 3.93*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
157 days
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