V-Lab
Yamadai Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
963.56
1 Week
937.47
1 Month
1,468.68
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 92% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.85 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0589 | 22.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9141 | 639.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0540 | 10.06*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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