V-Lab
CAR Mate MFG Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
10,093.53
decreased by 391.40
1 Week
10,927.23
increased by 442.30
1 Month
15,099.42
increased by 4,614.49
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5741 | 2.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0701 | 10.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9239 | 123.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1120 | -0.50 |
| γ2 | 0.1667 | 0.54 |
| γ3 | -0.4753 | -2.21** |
| γ4 | 1.0894 | 4.74*** |
| γ5 | -1.3546 | -7.18*** |
| γ6 | 1.1996 | 6.37*** |
| γ7 | -1.1138 | -3.84*** |
| γ8 | 1.3894 | 4.20*** |
| γ9 | -1.3414 | -4.68*** |
| γ10 | 0.9505 | 2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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