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CAR Mate MFG Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

10,093.53

decreased by 391.40

1 Week

10,927.23

increased by 442.30

1 Month

15,099.42

increased by 4,614.49

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAR Mate MFG Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5741
2.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0701
10.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9239
123.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1120
-0.50
γ20.1667
0.54
γ3-0.4753
-2.21**
γ41.0894
4.74***
γ5-1.3546
-7.18***
γ61.1996
6.37***
γ7-1.1138
-3.84***
γ81.3894
4.20***
γ9-1.3414
-4.68***
γ100.9505
2.77***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days