V-Lab
CAR Mate MFG Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
8,460.59
1 Week
9,215.06
1 Month
12,603.41
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 69% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0391 | 20.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9473 | 680.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0271 | 8.13*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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