V-Lab
Groundhog Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
7,579.63
increased by 4,312.10
1 Week
4,545.81
increased by 1,278.28
1 Month
3,543.86
increased by 276.33
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8550 | 0.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2082 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7918 | 0.19 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8286 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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