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Groundhog Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

7,579.63

increased by 4,312.10

1 Week

4,545.81

increased by 1,278.28

1 Month

3,543.86

increased by 276.33

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Groundhog Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8550
0.39
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2082
0.05
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7918
0.19
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.8286
-0.02

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days