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Groundhog Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

8,465.76

increased by 5,203.52

1 Week

4,505.08

increased by 1,242.84

1 Month

3,586.20

increased by 323.96

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Groundhog Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 224% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.42**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0744
5.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8423
128.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1666
6.93***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-