V-Lab
M3 Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
983.04
decreased by 39.19
1 Week
1,153.66
increased by 131.43
1 Month
1,139.80
increased by 117.57
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 27, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2810 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2121 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7879 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2769 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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