V-Lab
M3 Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
1,266.17
decreased by 42.15
1 Week
1,231.19
decreased by 77.13
1 Month
876.88
decreased by 431.44
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 27, 2020 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2852 | 0.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2120 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7880 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2423 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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