V-Lab
M3 Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,712.57
increased by 162.88
1 Week
1,309.84
decreased by 239.85
1 Month
1,099.40
decreased by 450.29
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 27, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2792 | 0.03 |
| αARCH | 0.2105 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7895 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2540 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence138629d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2792 | 0.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2105 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7895 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2540 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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