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M3 Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

1,712.57

increased by 162.88

1 Week

1,309.84

decreased by 239.85

1 Month

1,099.40

decreased by 450.29

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of M3 Technology Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 27, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2792
0.03
αARCH0.2105
0.00
βGARCH0.7895
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2540
0.00

1.000

Persistence

138629d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2792
0.03
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2105
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7895
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2540
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

138629 days