V-Lab
M3 Technology Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
932.41
decreased by 81.83
1 Week
1,063.22
increased by 48.98
1 Month
774.74
decreased by 239.50
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 27, 2020 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 513 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 186% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4484 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0832 | 9.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8379 | 125.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1551 | 13.69*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
513 days
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