M3 Technology Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
552.46
increased by 103.86
1 Week
424.33
decreased by 24.27
1 Month
375.18
decreased by 73.42
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 27, 2020 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 291 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 175% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5334 | 3.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0852 | 9.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8380 | 125.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1490 | 12.99*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
291 days
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