M3 Technology Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
488.24
1 Week
409.30
1 Month
425.93
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 27, 2020 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1916 | 3.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8187 | 57.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1916 | -20.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.3957 | 8.59*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6093 | 13.65*** |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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