V-Lab
TVE Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
405.25
increased by 80.44
1 Week
361.24
increased by 36.43
1 Month
473.35
increased by 148.54
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4808 | 4.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1597 | 11.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8212 | 58.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.7860 | -6.97*** |
| γ2 | 1.0985 | 6.08*** |
| γ3 | -0.1185 | -0.92 |
| γ4 | -0.3481 | -3.11*** |
| γ5 | 0.2015 | 1.65* |
| γ6 | -0.1898 | -1.49 |
| γ7 | 0.3056 | 2.63*** |
| γ8 | -0.5458 | -4.23*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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