V-Lab
TVE Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
502.67
decreased by 80.66
1 Week
487.15
decreased by 96.18
1 Month
422.96
decreased by 160.37
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4882 | 4.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.1595 | 11.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8216 | 58.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.7830 | -6.99*** |
| γ2 | 1.1023 | 6.12*** |
| γ3 | -0.1354 | -1.04 |
| γ4 | -0.3330 | -2.98*** |
| γ5 | 0.1919 | 1.57 |
| γ6 | -0.1805 | -1.40 |
| γ7 | 0.2991 | 2.47** |
| γ8 | -0.5606 | -4.06*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4882 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1595 | 11.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8216 | 58.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.7830 | -6.99*** |
| γ2 | 1.1023 | 6.12*** |
| γ3 | -0.1354 | -1.04 |
| γ4 | -0.3330 | -2.98*** |
| γ5 | 0.1919 | 1.57 |
| γ6 | -0.1805 | -1.40 |
| γ7 | 0.2991 | 2.47** |
| γ8 | -0.5606 | -4.06*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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