TVE Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
386.75
decreased by 13.29
1 Week
456.77
increased by 56.73
1 Month
553.99
increased by 153.95
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4793 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1599 | 11.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8210 | 58.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.7871 | -6.96*** |
| γ2 | 1.0979 | 6.07*** |
| γ3 | -0.1145 | -0.88 |
| γ4 | -0.3515 | -3.13*** |
| γ5 | 0.2035 | 1.66* |
| γ6 | -0.1914 | -1.51 |
| γ7 | 0.3056 | 2.66*** |
| γ8 | -0.5364 | -4.20*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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