V-Lab
Tokyo Auto Machine Works Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
6,465.88
increased by 1,465.79
1 Week
5,576.24
increased by 576.15
1 Month
3,844.40
decreased by 1,155.69
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0953 | 4.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 10.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8746 | 77.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.2380 | 3.52*** |
| γ2 | -0.4786 | -4.93*** |
| γ3 | 0.4575 | 7.78*** |
| γ4 | -0.4511 | -7.19*** |
| γ5 | 0.4237 | 6.24*** |
| γ6 | -0.3461 | -5.13*** |
| γ7 | 0.2785 | 2.04** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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