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Tokyo Auto Machine Works Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

6,055.07

increased by 1,358.55

1 Week

5,126.69

increased by 430.17

1 Month

3,525.12

decreased by 1,171.40

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Tokyo Auto Machine Works Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 2, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 71% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.09
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0535
20.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9276
616.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0379
8.48***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days