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V-Lab

General Packer Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

7,437.25

increased by 4,120.59

1 Week

4,424.21

increased by 1,107.55

1 Month

3,138.25

decreased by 178.41

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of General Packer Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 19, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6247
8.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1024
8.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8498
42.73***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0994
-5.76***
γ20.1166
4.40***
γ3-0.0569
-2.12**

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days