V-Lab
General Packer Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
7,437.25
increased by 4,120.59
1 Week
4,424.21
increased by 1,107.55
1 Month
3,138.25
decreased by 178.41
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6247 | 8.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1024 | 8.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8498 | 42.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0994 | -5.76*** |
| γ2 | 0.1166 | 4.40*** |
| γ3 | -0.0569 | -2.12** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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