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General Packer Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

5,604.21

increased by 1,775.71

1 Week

4,302.24

increased by 473.74

1 Month

3,833.71

increased by 5.21

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of General Packer Co ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 19, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 57% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.85
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0457
16.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9413
605.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0260
5.14***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-