V-Lab
General Packer Co ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
8,436.16
1 Week
5,311.25
1 Month
4,000.05
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1059 | 0.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8259 | 18.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1059 | -0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0725 | 0.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9275 | 4.31*** |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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