Nidec Chaun-Choung Techno Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
3,534.97
decreased by 648.56
1 Week
4,327.90
increased by 144.37
1 Month
3,370.97
decreased by 812.56
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Nov 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~146 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6609 | 5.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.1977 | 20.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7975 | 80.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 0.10 |
0.995
Persistence146d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6609 | 5.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1977 | 20.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7975 | 80.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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