V-Lab
Nidec Chaun-Choung Techno Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
3,171.00
increased by 226.79
1 Week
2,979.73
increased by 35.52
1 Month
3,689.04
increased by 744.83
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~145 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6611 | 5.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.1981 | 20.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7972 | 80.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 0.09 |
0.995
Persistence145d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6611 | 5.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1981 | 20.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7972 | 80.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
145 days
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