V-Lab
Nidec Chaun-Choung Techno Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
2,636.85
increased by 111.03
1 Week
2,934.30
increased by 408.48
1 Month
3,340.15
increased by 814.33
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6559 | 5.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1980 | 20.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7972 | 80.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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