V-Lab
Nidec Chaun-Choung Techno Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
2,901.79
decreased by 155.05
1 Week
3,075.68
increased by 18.84
1 Month
4,101.13
increased by 1,044.29
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 370 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 187% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~370 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 187% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3541 | 2.36** |
| αARCH | 0.0855 | 4.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8326 | 98.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.1601 | 4.72*** |
0.998
Persistence370d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3541 | 2.36** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0855 | 4.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8326 | 98.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1601 | 4.72*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
370 days
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