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V-Lab

Plastron Precision Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

4,994.58

increased by 1,548.31

1 Week

3,598.24

increased by 151.97

1 Month

2,964.46

decreased by 481.81

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 05:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Plastron Precision ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 234 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1367
6.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2024
9.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7947
38.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-5.3628
-1.86*
γ210.8597
1.75*
γ3-6.7221
-1.50
γ4-0.0018
0.00
γ51.6791
2.76***
γ6-0.4622
-1.41
γ7-0.0481
-0.14
γ8-0.0034
-0.01
γ90.3465
1.29
γ10-0.6553
-1.58

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

234 days