V-Lab
Plastron Precision Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,732.86
increased by 326.04
1 Week
1,927.99
increased by 521.17
1 Month
3,383.24
increased by 1,976.42
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2003 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 246 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2003 | 6.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2021 | 9.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7950 | 39.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -5.2551 | -1.83* |
| γ2 | 10.5785 | 1.72* |
| γ3 | -6.3663 | -1.43 |
| γ4 | -0.2838 | -0.23 |
| γ5 | 1.8198 | 3.04*** |
| γ6 | -0.5316 | -1.63 |
| γ7 | -0.0008 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.0310 | -0.09 |
| γ9 | 0.3809 | 1.38 |
| γ10 | -0.8093 | -1.95* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
246 days
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