V-Lab
Plastron Precision Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,476.44
increased by 90.07
1 Week
4,437.64
increased by 51.27
1 Month
3,467.73
decreased by 918.64
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 190 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4403 | 6.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1998 | 9.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7965 | 38.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -3.9928 | -1.78* |
| γ2 | 8.6637 | 1.73* |
| γ3 | -6.4513 | -1.62 |
| γ4 | 1.1967 | 0.99 |
| γ5 | 1.1600 | 3.99*** |
| γ6 | -0.8374 | -4.01*** |
| γ7 | 0.2466 | 1.41 |
| γ8 | 0.2402 | 1.05 |
| γ9 | -0.4727 | -1.27 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
190 days
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