V-Lab
Plastron Precision ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
3,576.25
1 Week
3,813.82
1 Month
3,807.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1690 | 0.78 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8346 | 389.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1690 | -0.43 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.0682 | 3.84*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0021 | 1.59 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9728 | 33.20*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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