How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	0.8226	5.13***
αARCH	0.2851	7.69***
βGARCH	0.6252	26.00***

γ₁	-0.0850	-4.98***
γ₂	0.1389	5.44***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	0.8226	5.13***
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.2851	7.69***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.6252	26.00***

γ₁	-0.0850	-4.98***
γ₂	0.1389	5.44***

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Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

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