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China Yangtze Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

2.01

decreased by 0.25

1 Week

2.53

increased by 0.27

1 Month

2.88

increased by 0.62

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of China Yangtze Power Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2003 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7640
0.14
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2117
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7883
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.6008
0.00
γ2-1.5764
0.00
γ31.2691
0.00
γ4-0.1683
0.00
γ5-0.2194
0.00
γ60.1009
0.00
γ7-0.0048
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

69314 days