V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2.25
decreased by 0.58
1 Week
2.88
increased by 0.05
1 Month
2.65
decreased by 0.18
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4895 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2202 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7798 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9359 | |
| γ2 | -1.6578 | |
| γ3 | 0.6727 | |
| γ4 | -0.9402 | |
| γ5 | 1.8312 | |
| γ6 | -0.8267 | |
| γ7 | -0.1353 | |
| γ8 | 0.1564 | |
| γ9 | -0.0765 | |
| γ10 | 0.0995 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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