V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
2.01
decreased by 0.25
1 Week
2.53
increased by 0.27
1 Month
2.88
increased by 0.62
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7640 | 0.14 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2117 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7883 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.6008 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -1.5764 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 1.2691 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -0.1683 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -0.2194 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 0.1009 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.0048 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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