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China Yangtze Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

2.25

decreased by 0.58

1 Week

2.88

increased by 0.05

1 Month

2.65

decreased by 0.18

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of China Yangtze Power Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4895
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2202
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7798
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.9359
γ2-1.6578
γ30.6727
γ4-0.9402
γ51.8312
γ6-0.8267
γ7-0.1353
γ80.1564
γ9-0.0765
γ100.0995

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days