V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2.40
decreased by 0.47
1 Week
2.96
increased by 0.09
1 Month
2.98
increased by 0.11
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0858 | 14.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2308 | 8.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8040 | 196.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0696 | -1.95* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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