V-Lab
China Yangtze Power Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
3.16
1 Week
2.91
1 Month
2.82
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 06:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2003 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1932 | 3.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.3267 | 0.77 |
| βGARCH | 0.7198 | 6.67*** |
| γleverage | -0.0930 | -0.21 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1932 | 3.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3267 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7198 | 6.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0930 | -0.21 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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