V-Lab
Beijing Jingneng Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
41.03
decreased by 11.00
1 Week
49.25
decreased by 2.78
1 Month
52.17
increased by 0.14
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9109 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2489 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7511 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.2244 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.7047 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.8189 | 0.03 |
| γ4 | -0.4701 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 0.1766 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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