V-Lab
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
51.84
decreased by 14.74
1 Week
62.28
decreased by 4.30
1 Month
40.34
decreased by 26.24
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2257 trading days (~9.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9151 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2431 | 17.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7566 | 54.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.5301 | -1.24 |
| γ2 | 5.6117 | 1.85* |
| γ3 | -8.2916 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | 6.5133 | 1.24 |
| γ5 | -3.1869 | -0.93 |
| γ6 | 1.1670 | 1.23 |
| γ7 | -0.3863 | -0.81 |
| γ8 | 0.2094 | 0.84 |
| γ9 | -0.2150 | -0.94 |
| γ10 | 0.1532 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2257 days
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