Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
70.37
increased by 8.72
1 Week
69.12
increased by 7.47
1 Month
65.98
increased by 4.33
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 599 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~599 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4795 | 3.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.2476 | 8.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7512 | 23.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.1410 | -0.51 |
| γ2 | -1.4350 | -0.98 |
| γ3 | 5.0049 | 1.28 |
| γ4 | -7.4225 | -1.29 |
| γ5 | 7.5174 | 1.31 |
| γ6 | -5.0487 | -1.34 |
| γ7 | 1.6177 | 1.46 |
0.999
Persistence599d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4795 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2476 | 8.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7512 | 23.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.1410 | -0.51 |
| γ2 | -1.4350 | -0.98 |
| γ3 | 5.0049 | 1.28 |
| γ4 | -7.4225 | -1.29 |
| γ5 | 7.5174 | 1.31 |
| γ6 | -5.0487 | -1.34 |
| γ7 | 1.6177 | 1.46 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
599 days
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