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Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

70.37

increased by 8.72

1 Week

69.12

increased by 7.47

1 Month

65.98

increased by 4.33

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 23, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 599 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~599 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4795
3.88***
αARCH0.2476
8.05***
βGARCH0.7512
23.86***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.1410
-0.51
γ2-1.4350
-0.98
γ35.0049
1.28
γ4-7.4225
-1.29
γ57.5174
1.31
γ6-5.0487
-1.34
γ71.6177
1.46

0.999

Persistence

599d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4795
3.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2476
8.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7512
23.86***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.1410
-0.51
γ2-1.4350
-0.98
γ35.0049
1.28
γ4-7.4225
-1.29
γ57.5174
1.31
γ6-5.0487
-1.34
γ71.6177
1.46

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

599 days