Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
49.42
increased by 3.02
1 Week
54.33
increased by 7.93
1 Month
84.72
increased by 38.32
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7296 trading days (~29.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2923 | 2.35** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2461 | 1.99** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7538 | 6.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0157 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | 0.5054 | 0.55 |
| γ3 | -1.9754 | -3.83*** |
| γ4 | 2.7115 | 1.76* |
| γ5 | -1.7220 | -1.10 |
| γ6 | 0.6402 | 0.81 |
| γ7 | -0.2456 | -0.76 |
| γ8 | 0.0221 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
7296 days
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