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Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

49.42

increased by 3.02

1 Week

54.33

increased by 7.93

1 Month

84.72

increased by 38.32

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7296 trading days (~29.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2923
2.35**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2461
1.99**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7538
6.08***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0157
0.02
γ20.5054
0.55
γ3-1.9754
-3.83***
γ42.7115
1.76*
γ5-1.7220
-1.10
γ60.6402
0.81
γ7-0.2456
-0.76
γ80.0221
0.08

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

7296 days