Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
51.16
1 Week
50.40
1 Month
94.32
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 246% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0280 | 9.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0962 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7853 | 134.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2371 | 4.17*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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