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Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

51.16

increased by 11.47

1 Week

50.40

increased by 10.71

1 Month

94.32

increased by 54.63

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 246% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0280
9.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0962
7.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7853
134.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2371
4.17***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days