Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
60.44
1 Week
67.22
1 Month
107.49
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3260 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7462 | 25.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1443 | -0.01 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5880 | 0.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0004 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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