V-Lab
CCS Supply Chain Management Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
4,713.39
increased by 114.98
1 Week
4,635.96
increased by 37.55
1 Month
4,265.47
decreased by 332.94
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7788 trading days (~30.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5860 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2563 | 5.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7437 | 16.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0721 | 1.67* |
| γ2 | -0.3117 | -2.22** |
| γ3 | 0.7766 | 2.79*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
7788 days
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