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CCS Supply Chain Management Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

4,713.39

increased by 114.98

1 Week

4,635.96

increased by 37.55

1 Month

4,265.47

decreased by 332.94

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CCS Supply Chain Management Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 3, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7788 trading days (~30.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5860
5.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2563
5.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7437
16.72***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0721
1.67*
γ2-0.3117
-2.22**
γ30.7766
2.79***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

7788 days