V-Lab
CCS Supply Chain Management Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
931.25
1 Week
874.96
1 Month
1,170.46
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 83% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 8.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1467 | 10.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7927 | 139.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1214 | 6.91*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other CCS Supply Chain Management Co Ltd Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities