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CCS Supply Chain Management Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

931.25

increased by 189.49

1 Week

874.96

increased by 133.20

1 Month

1,170.46

increased by 428.70

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CCS Supply Chain Management Co Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 3, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 83% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
8.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1467
10.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7927
139.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1214
6.91***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days