V-Lab
CCS Supply Chain Management Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
1,008.22
1 Week
938.75
1 Month
1,153.49
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2355 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5802 | 0.11 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2355 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9595 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0405 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.698
Half-life:
2 days
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