Huadian Power International Corp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
32.50
decreased by 1.62
1 Week
35.26
increased by 1.14
1 Month
34.86
increased by 0.74
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0215 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1983 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8017 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.4548 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.5045 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.3490 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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