V-Lab
Huadian Power International Corp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
28.14
increased by 5.80
1 Week
25.00
increased by 2.66
1 Month
30.36
increased by 8.02
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7517 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2253 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7747 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.6400 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.8571 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.2564 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 0.0524 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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