Huadian Power International Corp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
35.20
increased by 3.01
1 Week
32.60
increased by 0.41
1 Month
31.31
decreased by 0.88
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9223 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2232 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7768 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2316 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -2.0846 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 3.6269 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -3.9172 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 3.6316 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -1.6781 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.1351 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 0.0304 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.0148 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | 0.0002 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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