V-Lab
Rizhao Port Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
104.40
increased by 41.40
1 Week
83.37
increased by 20.37
1 Month
111.39
increased by 48.39
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 17, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 65 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3140 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2450 | 15.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7445 | 58.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.8182 | -13.10*** |
| γ2 | 1.2069 | 8.81*** |
| γ3 | -0.3757 | -2.71*** |
| γ4 | -0.1144 | -1.30 |
| γ5 | 0.1978 | 2.24** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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