Nippon Shindo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
3,336.75
decreased by 224.97
1 Week
3,745.89
increased by 184.17
1 Month
3,218.72
decreased by 343.00
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:46 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8880 | 0.08 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1527 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8473 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.2395 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.0260 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.5339 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.5961 | -0.03 |
| γ5 | 0.5073 | 0.67 |
| γ6 | -0.4054 | -0.06 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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