V-Lab
Nippon Shindo Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2,835.48
1 Week
2,931.22
1 Month
2,751.06
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 97% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 6.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0764 | 23.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8864 | 519.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0744 | 14.22*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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