V-Lab
Nihon Kogyo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
2,276.18
decreased by 82.32
1 Week
2,643.10
increased by 284.60
1 Month
4,203.38
increased by 1,844.88
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 59 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6992 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1024 | 11.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8860 | 86.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0078 | 0.06 |
| γ2 | -0.0055 | -0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.6168 | -2.21** |
| γ4 | 1.6319 | 4.53*** |
| γ5 | -1.7032 | -6.11*** |
| γ6 | 0.8678 | 5.01*** |
| γ7 | -0.3269 | -1.69* |
| γ8 | 0.5006 | 1.90* |
| γ9 | -0.7671 | -2.52** |
| γ10 | 0.6353 | 1.83* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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