V-Lab
Nihon Kogyo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
5,395.38
decreased by 282.85
1 Week
6,029.04
increased by 350.81
1 Month
6,414.12
increased by 735.89
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 59 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6983 | 4.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1016 | 11.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8866 | 86.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0109 | 0.08 |
| γ2 | -0.0090 | -0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.6066 | -2.17** |
| γ4 | 1.6022 | 4.49*** |
| γ5 | -1.6746 | -6.12*** |
| γ6 | 0.8638 | 4.92*** |
| γ7 | -0.3448 | -1.71* |
| γ8 | 0.5292 | 1.96* |
| γ9 | -0.7898 | -2.59*** |
| γ10 | 0.6644 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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