V-Lab
Nihon Kogyo Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
2,534.15
1 Week
2,427.18
1 Month
3,035.87
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 78% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.38 |
| αARCH | 0.0494 | 5.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9314 | 158.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.0385 | 2.12** |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0494 | 5.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9314 | 158.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0385 | 2.12** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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