V-Lab
Kyoshin Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
3,817.08
decreased by 401.66
1 Week
4,508.93
increased by 290.19
1 Month
9,401.97
increased by 5,183.23
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6532 | 2.52** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1644 | 12.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8190 | 65.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.2506 | -4.39*** |
| γ2 | 2.2908 | 6.16*** |
| γ3 | -1.5943 | -6.26*** |
| γ4 | 0.2519 | 0.90 |
| γ5 | 0.8182 | 3.26*** |
| γ6 | -1.0452 | -5.40*** |
| γ7 | 1.1101 | 6.46*** |
| γ8 | -0.7477 | -4.14*** |
| γ9 | 0.0864 | 0.53 |
| γ10 | 0.1567 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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