V-Lab
Kyoshin Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,931.22
1 Week
5,846.20
1 Month
9,926.19
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1728 | 0.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7148 | 29.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1728 | -0.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1039 | 0.07 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8961 | 19.43*** |
Persistence:
0.801
Half-life:
3 days
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