Japan Reliance Service Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
429.77
increased by 118.82
1 Week
366.93
increased by 55.98
1 Month
790.50
increased by 479.55
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 56 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1750 | 4.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2137 | 16.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7740 | 63.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.2533 | 4.99*** |
| γ2 | -0.7366 | -7.58*** |
| γ3 | 0.9649 | 8.94*** |
| γ4 | -0.6347 | -6.46*** |
| γ5 | -0.0905 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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