V-Lab
Bemap Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,743.73
increased by 711.30
1 Week
4,628.16
increased by 595.73
1 Month
6,723.41
increased by 2,690.98
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2002 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6080 | 0.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2761 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7239 | 0.03 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.6096 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 2.6962 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -1.7527 | -0.51 |
| γ4 | -0.0200 | -0.03 |
| γ5 | 1.6536 | 0.11 |
| γ6 | -1.0927 | -0.06 |
| γ7 | 0.2042 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -0.5951 | -0.03 |
| γ9 | 1.4896 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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