V-Lab
Bemap Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,120.39
1 Week
4,894.76
1 Month
6,987.66
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2002 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 171% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8949 | 6.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1046 | 22.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8063 | 337.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1783 | 21.32*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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