V-Lab
Jorudan Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,763.48
decreased by 563.61
1 Week
4,901.72
decreased by 425.37
1 Month
6,133.77
increased by 806.68
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 21, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7402 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1582 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8418 | 0.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1826 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | 0.1560 | 0.18 |
| γ3 | 0.1452 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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