V-Lab
Hep Tech Co. Ltd. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
6,041.50
increased by 3,275.48
1 Week
3,524.14
increased by 758.12
1 Month
4,269.20
increased by 1,503.18
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4087 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1064 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8936 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.2577 | |
| γ2 | -1.8724 | |
| γ3 | 2.6489 | |
| γ4 | -0.6393 | |
| γ5 | -0.0675 | |
| γ6 | -1.0823 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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