V-Lab
Hep Tech Co. Ltd. ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
17,679.98
1 Week
6,251.56
1 Month
6,827.80
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4597 | 12.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7194 | 86.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3582 | -5.94*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 180,686.2000 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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