V-Lab
Hep Tech Co. Ltd. Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
11,302.89
1 Week
4,546.43
1 Month
5,214.35
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0519 | 3.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8351 | 90.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2260 | 2.60*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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